Economist Michael Reddell unpacks the Reserve Bank’s anticipated cut of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5%, part of a slow unwind from previous hikes aimed at curbing inflation. While markets had priced in the move, the bank's lack of urgency in response to escalating global tariffs—especially the latest from the US and China—raised eyebrows. These trade tensions, Michael warns, could trigger a global recession, denting demand for New Zealand exports and impacting jobs, even if mortgage rates continue to fall.

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