By Dieuwe De Boer

Much was made of an August 2024 poll by the NZ Herald that showed “most New Zealanders support Kamala Harris.” Her support was 55% with Donald Trump's at a mere 21%. That was the least interesting observation of all time, but no legacy media journalist did the analysis that should have been done on the breakdown of the poll and the trend.

The NZ Herald ran a poll in 2016 and The Conversation did a survey in 2020. These paint an interesting picture:

• 9% in 2016
  

• 11% in 2020
  

• 23% in 2024
  

That's more than double since the 2020 survey and two-and-a-half times the support Trump has since the NZ Herald ran its first poll eight years ago. What's changed in the last four years? Clearly an increasing number of New Zealanders are unplugging from the mainstream media and making more independent choices on where to get their news.

When we look at the age breakdown from the poll we can see that clearly and how it leads to a more balanced view of Trump.

• 28% of 18-29 year olds support Trump.
  

• 25% of 30-44 year olds support Trump.
  

• 16% of 45-59 year olds support Trump.
  

• 13% of 60+ year olds support Trump.
  

Support for Donald Trump declines rapidly among older audiences who are much more likely to watch the 6 o'clock news or consume legacy media that has a heavy anti-Trump bias. Younger New Zealanders are more than twice as likely to support Trump.

Among Kiwi men and women we see a similar divide, only 11% of women vs 31% of men support Trump. Talbot Mills didn't provide a breakdown for young men vs young women, but we could infer a similar split showing an outright majority of young men in New Zealand support Trump.

The one aspect of the poll that got some attention was the breakdown by party. Only NZ First voters had greater support for Trump over Harris, and only NZ First, ACT, and the Maori Party did not have majority support for Harris.

• NZ First: 48% Trump, 35% Harris
  

• ACT: 32% Trump, 47% Harris
  

• National: 26% Trump, 55% Harris
  

• Maori: 18% Trump, 45% Harris
  

• Labour 14% Trump, 65% Harris
  

• Green: 8% Trump, 66% Harris
  

A key takeaway should be that alternatives to legacy media like Reality Check Radio which allow for hosts and guests to freely speak positively about Trump can have a big impact, and that there is a growing gap for new media that speaks to younger people who are rapidly shifting their political views to favour populist and patriotic leaders.